El Centro, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

998
FXUS65 KPSR 170955
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
255 AM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will exit the area later this morning with
  lingering morning precipitation across eastern Arizona. Winds
  will remain breezy for much of today.

- Another weather system clipping the area Wednesday will bring
  more windy conditions and precipitation chances mainly over the
  Arizona high terrain.

- Yet another system Thursday night into Friday will keep
  temperatures cooler than normal through the end of the week with
  additional chances for light showers across the high terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The weather across the region has finally gotten more exciting
with a decaying weather system now affecting much of the region.
This unsettled weather pattern will last through the end of the
work week with two other drier but colder weather systems
skirting across northern portions of the region.

A distinct cold front is currently moving across central Arizona
bringing a narrow band of rain and enhanced wind gusts along and
just ahead of the front. Rainfall amounts with this band have
generally been around 0.10" to upwards of 0.25". Localized wind
gusts to around 40 mph have also been reported with the strongest
gusts shifting into eastern Arizona closer to sunrise. A Wind
Advisory remains in effect for portions of the higher terrain east
of Phoenix through late morning. Temperatures today will be
noticeably cooler with readings likely staying below 70 degrees
for much of the south-central Arizona lower deserts to the lower
70s in Yuma and El Centro. Winds will remain breezy for much of
the area today, especially across southeast California where the
gradient will begin to tighten again this afternoon out ahead of
the next approaching weather system.

The next weather system is colder and is currently centered just
off the coast of northwest Washington. However, it is already in
an occluded state and will be weakening quickly as it dives
southward today into tonight. The biggest concern for our area
will be the enhanced winds aloft with H8 winds increasing out of
the west at 45-55 kts across southern California tonight to 30-40
kts across southern and central Arizona Wednesday morning. A Wind
Advisory has been issued for all of southeast California and
southwest Arizona with the strongest winds likely occurring
early morning Wednesday across southeast California where higher
terrain areas may see gusts up to around 50 mph. Gusty winds
generally between 30-40 mph will spread throughout the rest of
southern and central Arizona by mid morning and last at least into
the early afternoon hours before gradually diminishing.

Most of the energy from the system will bypass our area to the
north on Wednesday, but there should be enough jet support with
the passing shortwave to create some shower activity across
northern Maricopa County into Gila County mainly during the
afternoon hours. PoPs have increased slightly with chances now
40-50% for the Phoenix area to 60-80% north of Phoenix. The lack
of good moisture will however keep precipitation amounts fairly
low with amounts at most 0.10-0.25" over some higher terrain
areas northeast of Phoenix. Snow levels will drop Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning down to around 5500 feet before rising
closer to 6000 feet in the afternoon as the main shower activity
moves through the area. Some light snow may occur over the highest
peaks with at least some potential for a dusting of light snow
along Highway 60 north of Globe Wednesday evening.

Temperatures will also be quite chilly Wednesday with morning
temperatures starting out in the mid to upper 40s as winds become
gusty. Make sure to dress warmly if going outside Wednesday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Broad troughing will persist across the Western U.S. on Thursday
and through Friday across our region as a third weather system is
expected to track from along the Pacific Northwest coast Thursday
morning reaching northern Arizona Friday morning. High temperatures
Thursday may be the coolest of the week with readings from the
lower 60s in the Phoenix area to the mid to the upper 60s across
the western lower deserts. Overnight lows are also forecast to dip
into the upper 30s to the mid 40s, but it could even be colder if
it were not for the high likelihood of lingering elevated winds
and clouds.

Model guidance is finally starting to come to a consensus for
precipitation chances Friday with chances likely being very
similar to the Wednesday system. The best moisture and forcing
should be across the northern half of Arizona, but we should at
least get some scattered shower activity reaching into the south-
central Arizona lower deserts Friday morning. Precipitation
amounts again should be on the light side, but some uncertainty
remains as far as how much and how far south the shower activity
will reach. Friday`s high temperatures will be very similar to
Thursday, but as drier air and light winds filter into the area
Friday night more efficient cooling should lead to our coldest
morning on Saturday. Lows Saturday morning very well could dip
into the upper 30s for some of the Phoenix metro with rural lower
desert areas into the mid 30s.

Upper level ridging should then move over the region this weekend
with temperatures quickly climbing to above normal starting
Sunday. Guidance favors the ridge to persist into early next week
with NBM forecast highs back into the lower 80s for next Monday
and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0530Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Gusty winds, lowered CIGs, and SHRA activity resulting in MVFR
CIGs/VIS will all be weather issues, mainly through the overnight
period. South-southwest winds with gusts exceeding 20-25 kts are
occurring throughout the area out ahead of a cold front with the
potential of even stronger gusts in excess of 30-35 kts with the
SHRA activity that moves through during the overnight period. CIGs
have dropped below 6 kft with the potential to go as low as 3 kft
in SHRA activity overnight. Winds should veer out of a more due
west component behind the cold front after 10z with speeds
weakening significantly along with CIGs scattering out and
temporarily rising. However, lingering low-level moisture will
result in CIGs falling below 6 kft once again late Tuesday morning
through early Tuesday afternoon before improving above 6 kft by
the mid/late afternoon hours.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Gusty winds lingering through the overnight period as well through
late Tuesday morning and afternoon will be the primary aviation
weather concern. West to southwest winds will prevail at the
terminal sites throughout the period, with speeds gradually
weakening below 15 kts overnight before restrengthening by the
late morning/afternoon to 25-30 kts. Low-level clouds are expected
to clear out overnight with mainly SCT high cirrus decks
persisting into Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weather system and associated cold front will impact the region
early today with rain chances across the eastern districts mostly
ending by this afternoon. Breezy conditions will continue today
and pick up again on Wednesday as gusts once again reach above 35
mph in some areas. Another couple rounds of light shower activity
will be possible across the Arizona high terrain on Wednesday and
again Friday morning as two quick moving disturbances move across
northern Arizona. Afternoon MinRH values will range between
25-40% across the lower deserts to 35-60% over higher terrain
areas through Friday. Overnight recovery will range from good to
excellent. Drying and warming conditions are expected for the
coming weekend with MinRHs dropping into the teens for the lower
deserts and temperatures rising to above normal.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 4 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ530>533-535-
     536.

     Wind Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for AZZ557-558-563.

CA...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 3 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ565-567.

     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM PST Wednesday for
     CAZ560-561-563-564-566-568>570.

     Wind Advisory until 3 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ562.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman